Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts

Friday, February 18, 2022

The success story of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala from 5,000Rs to 50,000CR. (10,00,000 times)


Rakesh Ji as a child was always curious about stock movement. He used to ask his father why that stock went up or down. As a child also, he was very curious and used to look at balance sheet of companies.

He wanted to directly jump into stock market after 12. His father advised him to atleast do CA in case he fails into the market, he will have a backup.
 

1985
Wealth - 5000Rs

After completing CA, Rakesh Ji Came to Bombay with 5000Rs.

Now, at this point, he asked his brother for help to get him some money to trade. At that point in time borrowing used to happen at around 12 percent. 

He convinced 1 client who said, they will give him money at 18 percent. They promised him 2.5L with initial money of 1 lakh. As a mortgage, RakeshJi had given them the securities and his convicing words.

Wealth - 12.5L (Borrowed)

With that money, he made some success and he got his completed 2.5L. And another client gave him 10L to trade. With 12.5L, he made 30L within a year by trading. He paid a tax of 4L that year.

Wealth - 30L - (12.5L borrowed + 4 L tax) = 11 L


Then with that money, He bought SESA Goa at rate of 25 which became 65 in 4 months. His money went up to 30L with that trade.

Wealth - 30L

Then he bought Tata power at 150, which went up to 1000. That 30L became around 2-3 Crore with the help of that trade.

Wealth - 2-3 Crore.

VP singh Budget (1986)

Before the budget markets were very down, but he was very bullish. There used to be evening session on budget day 6-9PM. He had 3 Crore worth of stocks at 6 PM which became 30 Crore by 9PM. (Not sure of stock details. May be was trading F&O for this rise)

Wealth - 30 Crore.

1990s -1992 (Harshad Mehta)

His friend bought ACC at 100 and sold at 10100.  This stock rights issue was not even fully subscribed 3 years back. It was so crazy.

He made some success investment in Tata tea when it was at a P/E of 90 during Harshad Mehta Scam.  But, it was a successful bet for him as it was fundamentally strong stock in his opinion.

He became very bearish on markets in 1992 as markets were very highly valued. He made a lot of money during that time by shorting stocks.

He doubled his wealth in that bearish period.
Wealth - 60 Crore.

Post Scam

Year 1993 - SBI came with Ipo price of 90, got listed at 160. He shorted it a 160, Next day it went up to 240. Eventually it came down and he made money.

He bought United Spirits at 40 which became 24000 in 17 years. Due to split the price is different on exchange.

Over years, he made a successful bet on Titan and many other stocks.

Analysis - He initially borrowed money and traded on that. But, he was sure of his skill as he was looking at companies since he was a child. He was not a beginner and he was a qualified CA. He returned the money as soon as he can. We should not trade with borrowed money on reading his story.

He is both a trader and investor.

His trading style - He trades on the basis of momentum and keeps pyramiding (that is keep buying) when the stock moves in his favour. He never averages while trading and take a hit when the stock against him.
He never fixes a target as we never know till what level stock will go. He only gets out if it looks way overvalued and far stretched.  We can trade in any time frame for trading as per his view. 

He has made money in trading in certain bullish periods -  89-92, 2003-07, 2009-11.  

While investing, he does averaging sometimes with buying stocks in a staggered manner. If only the stock is going down and not the overall market.

If the overall market is looking bearish, he will lighten his position in staggered manner and sit on cash until the direction changes.




Monday, February 15, 2021

Is it better to stay invested in market or buying when there is a dip using the accumulated amount ?

Can we make more money by investing only when the market falls by more than 5 percent ? 

Idea sounds good until we take a look at the numbers. But, don't forget we might also miss some good market runs if we don't invest. 

I tested the monthly data from Jan 2009 to Jan 2021.  Making investment at the end of month, we acccumulated 10191 Niftybees whose value at the end of Jan 2021 was 14.8 Lakh. 
Total amount invested was 7.19 Lakhs.

But, if we keep on accumulating the money and invest only when the market falls by more than 5 percent. We had 9260 Niftybees whose value is 13.52 Lakhs. 

If we keep SIP on, we will make 9.46 percent more returns in NIFTYBEES.

I have not considered any returns on the accumulated money that is lying idle in the bank. If we consider that too, more or less returns will be same. 



Excel Numbers 



Saturday, February 13, 2021

Can I make money by shorting Nifty Calls and buying Niftybees ?

This idea sounds great to pocket the premium by selling nifty option calls and saving ourselves by buying equivalent Niftybees.

Lets see the actual returns that we will make.

As of today, Nifty is at 15163. Lets say we try to take premium out of April call.
We will short NIfty 14000 CE which is at 1419, we will get 14000 + 1419 - 15163 = 256 points out of this. One lot is of 75 size, so we will pocket 256 * 75 = 19200 Rs in 2.5 months.

But, we need to save ourselves from losses, so we will buy equivalent niftybees.
(15163 * 75) which is Rs. 1137225.

Plus, we will margin for shorting nifty call which is approx 26200 as of now.

Total money required to pocket premium = 1137225 + 26200 = 1399225 ~ 14 Lakh.

You will make 19200 on 14 Lakh which is 1.3 percent.

You are making 1.3 percent in 2.5 months. In an year, you will make approx 6.24 percent. 

Note - We can try this checking with far OTM calls but we need to contain the risk too that's why I went with Deep ITM call.

I think its better to buy plain niftybees which gave 12 percent CAGR in last 10 years or 16% CAGR since inception. 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/mutual-funds/nav/nippon-india-etf-nifty-bees/MBM001

Sunday, December 11, 2016

NR 7 and NR21 Trading

Link : NR7 tutorial


NR21 stocks
AUROPHARMA
BATAINDIA
BHARATFIN
BRITANNIA
CAIRN
CENTURYTEX
COLPAL
CONCOR
CROMPGREAV
DHFL
EXIDEIND
HINDUNILVR
JETAIRWAYS
JISLJALEQS
LICHSGFIN
MINDTREE
NCC
NHPC
OIL
PETRONET
POWERGRID
SINTEX
SRF
TATAGLOBAL
TORNTPHARM
ULTRACEMCO

WIPRO

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

When does nifty make high and low for the day?


When does market make high?

09 represents time from 09:15 to 10:00
10 represents time from 10:00 11:00


HTML Code:
Count Time 
 404 09
 101 10
  73 11
  67 12
  86 13
 176 14
 297 15
Majority of the time markets make either in the morning or in the evening.

When does market make low?
HTML Code:
 319 09
  93 10
  85 11
 126 12
 114 13
 213 14
 252 15
It's interesting to know these stats. Don't know how can we take advantage of these figures.
What we see in the chart are the point with low time(x axis ) and (y axis ) for a day.
The x axis and y axis are actually in seconds. Like 09:16 a.m. will be 09*60+16 => 556. 

A single point represent a trading day.
X axis Low time
Y axis High time

If there is a point in the left top, that means for that trading day Nifty made the high at the end of the trading day and low at the open.

If there is a point in the right top, that means for that trading day Nifty made the high at the end of the trading day and low also at the end of the trading day. That's why chart is not dark at right top.





 

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Combined Premium for Nov 2016

8400 CE +PE

8500 CE +PE


8600 CE +PE



Saturday, June 11, 2016

Short straddle in BHEL and BankNifty


This strategy requires that you sell both call and put options of the same strike price for the same expiry date. This strategy makes profit because of the decay in premium with time. Short straddle can be used if you know where the stock is going to end.

First column shows the underlying  price.Other columns shows the premium of call and put options combined for the strike price mentioned in the top.

BHEL
125
120
130
115
110
114.85
15.55
14.05
18.25
12.45
13.35
113.85
15.7
14.15
18.9
13.65
13.5
116.45
15.2
13.5
19.35
13.35
14.65
116.85
15.15
13.05
17.95
12.9
14.35
112.85
15.9
13.8
18.3
12.8
12.65
113.9
15.45
13.15
19.85
12.05
12.55
119.25
12.35
10.95
17.85
11.1
12.55
122.8
9.75
9.65
10.85
11.3
14.95
127.45
9.15
11
9.2
14.4
18.5
127.3
8.2
10.25
8.35
14.05
17.65
133.65
10.75
14.3
7.7
18.9
23.65
132.2
9.65
13.25
6.85
17.35
20.95
132.95
9.85
14.15
6.8
17.65
23.6
128.9
6.9
10.55
5.9
14.65
19.15
127.55
5.7
8.55
5.15
12.8
18.7
125.65
4.15
6.9
5.4
10.7
15.35
129.15
4.6
9.2
3.15
15.05
20.25
127.75
3.85
8.3
2.6
13.3
19.05
125
0.1
5.05
4.9
9.85
15

For 125 strike price, the combined premium went from 15.55 to 0.1.

You can even sell for more than 2-3 strike prices and take the advantage or you can apply this strategy on 2-3 stocks.

For strike price 120, 125 and 130, combined premium = 47.85
and at expiry premium = 10.05.


Short straddle on Bank Nifty

                        Strike Price CE+PE ====>
Banknifty
16500
17000
17500
16716.9
849
1142
991.65
16795
850
1095
910.85
16543
763
1083
1041.5
16388.7
739.4
1118.8
1138.3
16274.25
702.05
1124.1
1217
16281
659.95
1039.95
1173.35
16296.6
642.45
1017.9
1163
16686.1
621.7
803.4
858
16784.95
640.05
780.1
767
16754.45
626.55
800.9
811.25
16923.7
698.05
796.05
657
16716.9
564
730
829
16737.55
540.15
672.4
749.4
16762.75
526.9
644.8
746.5
16728.95
497.3
608.6
762.45
16565.25
420
602
949.6
16481.45
323
481
973.55
16407.55
236.3
406.4
1096.55
16456.65
176
257
991.4
16997.45
512.45
516.25
494.1
17359.3
841.55
841.6
114.25


For 17500, combined premium went from 991 to 114.25. 

One of the drawbacks of this strategy is if the stock made a large move in any direction then you will be in loss and it requires a large margin to execute.
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