Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts

Monday, February 28, 2022

Biggest Wealth creator and destroyer in the last 20 years in the indian stock market

 

Biggest Wealth Creator




  • Rs 10,000 invested in Eicher Motors in 1992 is worth today - Rs 80 lacs
  • Rs 10,000 invested in Asian Paints in 1986 is worth today at Rs 90 lacs
  • Rs 10,000 invested in Dr Reddy’s Labs in 1986 is worth today at mindboggling Rs 10 crores.
  • Rs 10,000 invested in Shree Cement in 1990 is worth today at Rs 2.90 crores.
  • Rs 10,000 invested in Torrent Pharma in 2008 is worth today at Rs 2.19 lacs (approx) (that’s more than 21 times in 9 years)
  • Rs 10,000 invested in Granules India in 2008 is worth today at Rs 2.97 lacs (almost 30 times in 9 years) (Stock was at Rs 28.20 back in 2008 and there was split in face value from 10 to 1 in 2015)
  • Hold your breath for this one. Rs 10,000 invested in Ajanta Pharma in 2008 would be worth today at Rs 24.42 lacs. (More than 240 times in 9 years)

Barring these companies there are many companies which have grown tremendously in the last 20–30 years. We all have read about the investing returns from Infosys and Wipro over the last 3 decades.

There are companies like Bajaj Finance, BPCL, Lupin, Natco Pharma and HPCL which have delivered 50–60x over a period of last 20 years.


Biggest Wealth Destroyer

The BSE Sensex has gone up at a CAGR of 17% over the past five years(16-21), generating over 110% returns. Many stocks fell by more than 95% in the past five years.
If you had invested ₹1 lakh in these stocks in 2016, you would now be left with a mere 2000.




Retail Investors Love yes bank










It happens every few years, such big companies gets eroded off the market. These type of capital erosion happened in the past also. Do a periodic check of your portfolio. Don't gamble. Invest 95% of your money via a mutual fund manager. All of these above companies have a very large holding by public now because we think we are buying cheap.


The stocks like DLF, Reliance communications, Suzlon, JP associates and Unitech have lost more than 90% from 2008 to 2015.




There is a very good chance that we might end up choosing one of the above stocks in our portfolio and end up keeping it because of various biases and fallacies in our mind. It's always good to have a diversified portfolio of around 10 Stocks. If you have around 30 stocks, better go with a MF route.










Saturday, December 31, 2016

Analysis of Nifty

Data Tested from 2-Aug-2010 to 29 July 2016.

Is gap up a good buying opportunity?
Among the tested 1503 trading days, Nifty gapped up 761 times.
The total of close-open comes out -26454 points on those 761. It's not a good decision to buy on gap up, we should look for short opportunity.

HISTOGRAM

Bin Frequency
-180 15
-160 3
-140 7
-120 29
-100 24
-80 51
-60 65
-40 115
-20 134
0 891
20 83
40 46
60 19
80 12
100 4
120 2
140 1
160 0
180 0
More 0


Among the tested 1503 trading days, Nifty gapped down 742 times.
The total of open-close comes out -19798 points on those 742 days. It's a good decision to sell on gap down.

HISTOGRAM
Bin Frequency
-180 2
-160 2
-140 7
-120 12
-100 27
-80 47
-60 73
-40 93
-20 126
0 911
20 98
40 58
60 27
80 11
100 6
120 0
140 1
160 0
180 0
More 0

Analysis of nifty from 2-Aug-2010 to 29 July 2016.

(Close - open) and their frequency w.r.t bin.


Simple Histogram
Bin Frequency
-180 15
-160 3
-140 7
-120 30
-100 24
-80 57
-60 76
-40 142
-20 192
0 276
20 206
40 172
60 113
80 84
100 51
120 29
140 13
160 7
180 2
More 2

Fat Tails

High -low and their frequency.
20 0
40 124
60 349
80 340
100 262
120 165
140 84
160 65
180 33
200 15
220 8
240 9
260 5
280 1
300 1
More 2 







Tested Data from 18/9/2007 to 18/11/2016
2279 Trading days

PDH = previous day high
PDL = previous day low.

Nifty crossed the PDH.
1208 days it crossed the PDH. Among those 1208, 691 days it closed above the PDH.
But, in all 1208 days , the sum of close-PDH is 10921.
So, its good to trade the breakout of PDH.

Nifty crossed the PDL.
1083 days it crossed the PD low. Among those, 605 days it closed low.
Sum of PD low-close is 14113. But, we should look for failure too. One day it was -416 points.

It shows if nifty crosses the pdh/pdl it will close in that direction for 55% of the days.


Is it a good idea a buy on gap up days ?

Among 2279 days, nifty gapped up by more than 20 pts. for 472 days.
The sum of close-open for those days is -1445.

Is it a good idea to sell on gap down days ?
Gap down 227 days. Among those 227 days, 116 days open-close was positive.
Sum of open-close for those 227 days is -39.

Does market follow the previous day ?

1068 days market closed on positive side. 516 days followed.
1173 days market closed negative. 626 days followed.

I tried checking if nifty closed more than +40 and +60. Did the next day followed ? Same result only 50% days.

If we see all the figures so far, we came to see that markets are fairly balanced this way.

Simple Stats of Nifty (2007 - 2016)
If Nifty opens within PDR, it has 50% probability of closing within the range
If Nifty opens abv PDH, it has 60% probability of closing abv PDH
If Nifty opens blw PDL, it has 60% probability of closing blw PDL

If Nifty opens above PDC, 60% probability of closing above PDC
If Nifty opens below PDC, 60% probability of closing below PDC

Trading stocks that open with a gap and do they trend

Markets are random by nature.  We have to look for events where the market will behave in a non random fashion.

Take the stocks which opened with a gap of more than 2%, then wait for 5/15 minutes for the stock to set the opening range. Then, take the trade in the direction which is showing strength.

For analysis purpose, lets start with gap up of more than 2%, does the stock rise? Data tested from 2012.

StockName , Sum of (close-open) %, Sum of abs(close-open)%,  No of trades in 4 years


JPASSOCIAT   -27.32610219 186.49 49
HDIL         6.918107082 112.75 35
ARVIND       -15.62888451 37.44 10
ADANIENT     -5.435449073 54.09 18
HAVELLS      -21.25835332 41.05 9
MARICO       -39.96573965 59.93 21
INDIACEM     -68.85385005 124.15 37
ORIENTBANK   -42.11056829 115.61 36
AUROPHARMA   -46.51498804 91.83 20
ABIRLANUVO   -12.20098535 41.41 16
HINDPETRO    -22.54552241 80.6 29
LTFH         -26.20525764 86.26 35
TORNTPHARM   -65.52778734 95.43 40
BOSCHLTD     -18.62853516 37.35 18
JISLJALEQS   -43.31868274 101.4 28
GMRINFRA     -87.8594496 172.09 61
GAIL         -12.51424082 21.94 12
JUBLFOOD     -4.557456022 22.45 7
SRTRANSFIN   2.299413528 46.95 15
SINTEX       -23.85124559 98.82 37
SIEMENS      -15.55014222 21.18 10
SUNPHARMA    -2.391231081 22.7 14
JUSTDIAL     -15.71188357 50.5 14
ITC          2.886965737 5.11 3
APOLLOHOSP   -37.66990604 38.11 13
POWERGRID    0 0 0
GRASIM       11.04174322 11.19 4
INFY         -2.500189208 38.98 14
IGL          -13.85018987 42.93 14
RPOWER       -18.61653415 39.83 24
BHEL         16.12160525 45.63 20
GODREJCP     -89.51885313 90.26 28
BEML         -14.88913373 58.07 33
PNB          -28.62738614 59.73 18
TATACOMM     -19.49069376 88.32 32
OIL          -52.08247373 53.01 22
NIITTECH     -64.8338293 88.24 29
ALBK         -13.04923915 58.39 24
IDEA         -33.27583111 47.3 17
CROMPGREAV   -49.9852008 71.38 24
IDFCBANK     -9.65067349 9.65 7
TATACHEM     -20.10151924 25.29 13
BANKINDIA    -41.17012134 108.86 36
RCOM         4.287864937 80.79 26
MCDOWELL_N   -5.030194248 94 21
JSWENERGY    -19.23503614 149.36 40
ICICIBANK    8.120235266 39.84 26
TITAN        -17.77907956 59.17 17
IBREALEST    28.64923837 197.22 52
DISHTV       -7.809799645 49.45 21
RELINFRA     17.08722569 44.91 21
ACC          3.485578844 3.49 2
RELCAPITAL   15.13681549 75.17 28
RELIANCE     5.448744172 25.64 13
TATAELXSI    -19.61787874 26.67 13
UPL          3.918800681 5.79 4
RECLTD       14.44721147 41.51 18
AXISBANK     -2.395651934 55.77 28
JETAIRWAYS   -48.34884996 196.7 55
EICHERMOT    -74.99507894 129.14 51
JSWSTEEL     12.25074036 20.77 7
SOUTHBANK    -95.69516029 120.74 35
ASHOKLEY     -101.8843838 168.37 56
CADILAHC     -50.51199764 54.84 18
BANKBARODA   -6.932646783 67.95 21
BAJFINANCE   -40.38318483 78.94 38
ZEEL         -20.52294228 30.8 11
IRB          -34.8279921 91.9 37
TECHM        -45.58843225 69.61 18
ASIANPAINT   -5.630510755 5.63 3
WOCKPHARMA   -72.70258187 154.88 56
SBIN         -13.41877562 57 23
COLPAL       -44.48511644 46.1 14
LUPIN        -26.44000687 29.67 11
GODREJIND    -37.92813947 70.67 19
ADANIPORTS   -20.03265154 69.62 21
ANDHRABANK   -17.37331468 75.96 25
ULTRACEMCO   -8.093124692 31.9 13
IBULHSGFIN   3.853731371 41.68 13
AMBUJACEM    7.75268395 8.37 5
NCC          -92.74904606 310.37 76
FEDERALBNK   -61.58029764 92.88 37
TATAMTRDVR   -13.29062406 53.31 28
AJANTPHARM   -50.48423589 66.21 32
HINDUNILVR   -4.30677195 27.83 7
BHARTIARTL   -2.760943506 41.24 19
NTPC         7.108794797 13.48 6
HEXAWARE     -0.178899116 68.13 28
CANBK        -12.01056846 87.46 28
PFC          2.759165233 85.42 25
CUMMINSIND   -55.84490326 68.18 26
INFRATEL     -40.9635048 70.71 20
SRF          -46.21250814 106.32 38
EXIDEIND     -21.66887638 35.29 13
TATAGLOBAL   -25.69903946 52.64 17
TATAPOWER    -13.91952694 34.76 17
WIPRO        -5.162923704 16.2 10
LT           18.5049291 26.18 13
HCLTECH      -16.32849032 21.52 10
DABUR        -31.31283597 38.9 11
SYNDIBANK    -34.42217561 88.31 31
CASTROLIND   3.103825563 10.8 2
SUNTV        -7.577627704 62.85 20
TCS          -5.647374233 24.04 12
COALINDIA    -17.60770549 23.05 10
YESBANK      19.03962631 109.24 35
KOTAKBANK    -16.81416131 36.62 16
DLF          51.90427002 110.47 40
BEL          -44.58298807 92.13 29
CESC         -16.95623089 35.82 15
TORNTPOWER   -49.25612942 90.26 30
KPIT         -32.02608543 93.03 37
UNIONBANK    -34.17727551 87.42 25
NMDC         -6.231011045 39.84 17
GRANULES     -75.89438033 201.04 55
MM           -6.308605213 11.57 6
CIPLA        -11.26761811 15.09 9
OFSS         -22.42548012 30.39 16
PTC          -6.489572282 80.5 32
HDFC         -12.51945461 27.48 11
CEATLTD      -45.521239 69.88 25
PETRONET     -20.16833721 23.07 11
GLENMARK     -26.93497808 56.51 19
IDBI         -43.48651127 77.21 30
KSCL         -131.629617 209.67 79
ICIL         -731.3678047 1110.89 246
INDUSINDBK   -44.40555381 75.31 27
CAIRN        -21.22236281 57.47 22
BIOCON       -12.68110054 23.31 11
LICHSGFIN    -5.347311302 52.09 21
BHARATFORG   -17.4231582 46.18 20
MCLEODRUSS   -62.04295853 89.38 23
HINDALCO     -16.38579565 47.39 24
CONCOR       -95.64042868 117.35 40
MARUTI       -1.171339638 23.72 8
IOC          -49.4409745 61.85 22
PCJEWELLER   -82.93014342 175.21 47
DCBBANK      3.362272377 44.64 19
BRITANNIA    -21.58679726 45.79 19
PIDILITIND   -43.36076451 50.15 22
HEROMOTOCO   -20.27581526 20.28 8
PAGEIND      -84.75346482 97.97 39
NHPC         -74.29842794 98.13 27
HDFCBANK     -11.14099193 24.33 10
TATAMOTORS   19.41665744 42.91 29
BATAINDIA    -5.230801989 12.75 6
CENTURYTEX   1.969653423 36.08 18
VEDL         3.633897425 49 16
APOLLOTYRE   -50.73160818 59.29 20
DRREDDY      -8.280705509 10.73 6
TATASTEEL    -1.797890652 52.01 22
MRF          -21.95918899 26.92 13
DHFL         21.59590695 52.31 13
AMARAJABAT   -4.439943169 60.91 18
ONGC         3.323130734 47.41 21
MOTHERSUMI   -43.79802951 70.95 32
KTKBANK      -43.05275324 82.55 35
HINDZINC     -54.70236533 68.74 23
STAR         -70.41790671 80.6 21
ADANIPOWER   -56.99759995 113.94 45
BAJAJ_AUTO   -10.34207351 14.3 7
SAIL         1.993593884 47.59 22
TV18BRDCST   -61.1422626 226.33 55
BPCL         2.311829919 54.47 21
MINDTREE     -45.91844294 64.12 28
DIVISLAB     -24.82082949 45.18 15
JINDALSTEL   -23.03375172 95.34 30
UBL          -51.5736475 58.57 18
VOLTAS       -22.43468784 76.88 23
MMFIN        -64.98440681 93.73 30
BHARATFIN    0 0 0
TVSMOTOR     -140.0207785 183.65 50
IFCI         -23.62337616 104.79 37
IDFC         -3.258244886 81.15 27

Total trades : 4255
Total sum of % change(2nd column) : -5031%. Gaps getting filled.
Total sum of abs change : 12570.

2.95% change per trade.

The results look, stocks seem to be trending after a gap up.

Let's take a look from the gap down of more than 2%.

StockName, sum of % Change open -close, Sum of absolute % change open-close, no of trades



JPASSOCIAT   16.2 138.15 39
HDIL         -2.96 161.84 36
ARVIND       -6.44 29.34 12
ADANIENT     72.16 143.45 17
HAVELLS      -18.38 36.78 10
MARICO       -11.42 18.29 10
INDIACEM     -64.62 115.8 32
ORIENTBANK   -2.53 66.61 25
AUROPHARMA   -23.99 55.85 19
ABIRLANUVO   -11.69 51.2 13
HINDPETRO    -30.11 71.26 14.00
LTFH         -13.61 36.1 13
TORNTPHARM   -57.08 90.08 28
BOSCHLTD     -6.75 12.81 5.00
JISLJALEQS   -12.28 81.72 24.00
GMRINFRA     -39.73 114.21 39
GAIL         -7.41 10.16 8
JUBLFOOD     -24.72 35.6 10
SRTRANSFIN   -32.07 75.41 19
SINTEX       -12.97 82.87 23
SIEMENS      -4.12  7.48 4
SUNPHARMA    -5.05 28.73 13.00
JUSTDIAL     -1.02 43.47 14
ITC          -3.41  3.41 2
APOLLOHOSP   -7.38 18.79 7
POWERGRID    -0.35 16.51 4.00
GRASIM       -1.84  7.53 3
INFY         30.27 41.48 13
IGL          19.36 29.16 4
RPOWER       15.21 28.12 9
BHEL         12.52 49.57 13
GODREJCP     -73.45 73.6 12
BEML         -25.02 66.62 29.00
PNB          -5.9 44.52 15
TATACOMM     -15.53 39.11 12
OIL          -4.99 26.61 13
NIITTECH     -55.04 80.99 33
ALBK         -28.98 52.1 15
IDEA         -50.62 63.75 20
CROMPGREAV   -33.62 69.57 20
IDFCBANK      7.53  7.53 3
TATACHEM     -4.15 26.9 10
BANKINDIA    11.92 62.87 22
RCOM         -16.65 71.49 17
MCDOWELL_N   -73.52 94.45 18
JSWENERGY    -63.17 110.63 32.00
ICICIBANK     5.25 22.88 12
TITAN        -17.36 50.7 13
IBREALEST     3.02 101.82 28
DISHTV       -55.98 82.05 23
RELINFRA      3.78 56.11 12
ACC          -17.73 17.73 7
RELCAPITAL   -10.72 54.21 14.00
RELIANCE      5.25  9.67 4
TATAELXSI    -45.87 83.96 21.00
UPL          12.34 18.19 7.00
RECLTD        5.25 48.94 16
AXISBANK     16.94 52.21 19
JETAIRWAYS   -49.46 116.18 31
EICHERMOT    -16.46 43.68 16
JSWSTEEL     -21.74 35.55 9.00
SOUTHBANK    -51.65 52.89 14.00
ASHOKLEY     -113.38 139.88 31
CADILAHC     -14.19 28.52 12
BANKBARODA   -19.2 33.22 14
BAJFINANCE   -45.48 65.37 20
ZEEL         -23.64 31.22 12
IRB          -7.85 88.96 25
TECHM        -17.76 47.19 16
ASIANPAINT    7.40  8.27 6
WOCKPHARMA   -96.04 160.31 51
SBIN         -16.88 39.62 14
COLPAL       -30.54 32.97 10
LUPIN        -34.55 39.57 11
GODREJIND    -27.51 51.15 10.00
ADANIPORTS   -38.8 56.6 17
ANDHRABANK   -9.44 50.66 15
ULTRACEMCO   -40.18 42.18 12
IBULHSGFIN   -6.78 53.94 21.00
AMBUJACEM    -14.61 21.71 11
NCC          -18.15 133.37 35
FEDERALBNK   -9.07 42.56 21
TATAMTRDVR   -19.13 64.98 21
AJANTPHARM   -14.14 60.45 18
HINDUNILVR   -4.81  5.29 3.00
BHARTIARTL   -17.97 34.59 10
NTPC         17.55 20.71 5
HEXAWARE     -38.39 45.86 15
CANBK         8.85 72.95 23
PFC          -5.41 32.09 14
CUMMINSIND   -26.23 26.23 6
INFRATEL     -130.12 164.1 43
SRF          -31.1 92.87 29
EXIDEIND     -31.19 37.67 13.00
TATAGLOBAL   -38.24 39.55 11
TATAPOWER    -24.2 42.94 13
WIPRO         8.29 31.26 15
LT            1.18 21.3 9
HCLTECH      -2.82 30.99 15.00
DABUR        -7.7 18.26 9
SYNDIBANK    -3.3 58.34 20
CASTROLIND    3.89  7.48 2
SUNTV         7.93 95.81 20
TCS           7.06 15.86 10
COALINDIA    -7.23 18.93 12.00
YESBANK      20.01 65.57 17
KOTAKBANK     3.41 17.27 10.00
DLF          22.64 130.85 33
BEL          -33 58.36 20
CESC          9.72 35.97 11.00
TORNTPOWER   -12.88 44.98 13
KPIT         -41.88 128.09 20
UNIONBANK    -7.25 91.61 26
NMDC         -15.32 34.51 18
GRANULES     -47.62 76.22 17
MM           -5.85 19.4 9
CIPLA        10.63 10.63 3.00
OFSS         -13.94 37.18 14
PTC          -48.77 76.29 21.00
HDFC          2.82  9.48 6
CEATLTD      -127.23 149.91 40.00
PETRONET     -17.09 28.58 13.00
GLENMARK     -26.91 35.52 15
IDBI         -21.2 61.05 17
KSCL         -103.22 119.09 31
ICIL         -843.02 952.07 212
INDUSINDBK    3.56 32.62 11
CAIRN        -1.74 55.87 20.00
BIOCON       -15.66 30.77 7
LICHSGFIN    -10.1 32.65 9
BHARATFORG   -12.17 23.03 11
MCLEODRUSS   -34.88 57.19 12
HINDALCO     -26.71 55.35 22
CONCOR       -30.21 50.34 21
MARUTI        3.93 20.72 9.00
IOC          -33.44 46.33 17.00
PCJEWELLER   -9.99 57.56 25
DCBBANK      16.39 28.83 6
BRITANNIA    -47.58 49.86 8
PIDILITIND   -12.76 19.57 11.00
HEROMOTOCO   -8.35 11.47 6
PAGEIND      -31.62 48.33 22.00
NHPC         -54.90 56.13 10.00
HDFCBANK      4.90  5.68 3
TATAMOTORS    0.30 58.11 21.00
BATAINDIA    -28.16 49.27 20
CENTURYTEX   -17.09 53.88 16
VEDL          9.2 67.7 14
APOLLOTYRE   10.25 74.29 14
DRREDDY      -6.25  8.79 5
TATASTEEL    -3.53 46.96 14.00
MRF          -12.71 16.04 6
DHFL         -2.34 65.91 19.00
AMARAJABAT   -62.64 76.35 17
ONGC         -0.02 30.35 15
MOTHERSUMI   -54.38 92.23 24
KTKBANK      -39.68 76.6 16
HINDZINC     -32.86 32.86 15
STAR         -61.71 96.66 19
ADANIPOWER    8.28 67.00 21.00
BAJAJ_AUTO    4.15  9.59 5
SAIL         -6.84 40.34 13.00
TV18BRDCST   -38.97 76.3 29
BPCL         -0.03 27.74 11
MINDTREE     -23.77 41.19 14
DIVISLAB     -19.01 19.01 6
JINDALSTEL   -15.41 127.8 31
UBL          -12.96 48.88 15
VOLTAS       -45.61 71.98 24
MMFIN        -30.35 49.92 14
BHARATFIN     0.00  0 0
TVSMOTOR     -71.71 80.62 28
IFCI         -96.71 167.07 27
IDFC         20.68 69.01 16


In gap down, movement is good.

Total trades : 2984.
Total sum of open -close % (2nd column): -4069. => Gaps filled.
Sum of absolute change(3rd column) : 10252.

It shows a movement of 3.43% per trade.

The above also shows gaps are often filled. Now, further study needs to be done on the Opening range breakout on the stocks with a gap.