Is it better to stay invested in market or buying when there is a dip using the accumulated amount ?

Can we make more money by investing only when the market falls by more than 5 percent ? 

Idea sounds good until we take a look at the numbers. But, don't forget we might also miss some good market runs if we don't invest. 

I tested the monthly data from Jan 2009 to Jan 2021.  Making investment at the end of month, we acccumulated 10191 Niftybees whose value at the end of Jan 2021 was 14.8 Lakh. 
Total amount invested was 7.19 Lakhs.

But, if we keep on accumulating the money and invest only when the market falls by more than 5 percent. We had 9260 Niftybees whose value is 13.52 Lakhs. 

If we keep SIP on, we will make 9.46 percent more returns in NIFTYBEES.

I have not considered any returns on the accumulated money that is lying idle in the bank. If we consider that too, more or less returns will be same. 

Excel Numbers 

Read More

Can I make money by shorting Nifty Calls and buying Niftybees ?

This idea sounds great to pocket the premium by selling nifty option calls and saving ourselves by buying equivalent Niftybees.

Lets see the actual returns that we will make.

As of today, Nifty is at 15163. Lets say we try to take premium out of April call.
We will short NIfty 14000 CE which is at 1419, we will get 14000 + 1419 - 15163 = 256 points out of this. One lot is of 75 size, so we will pocket 256 * 75 = 19200 Rs in 2.5 months.

But, we need to save ourselves from losses, so we will buy equivalent niftybees.
(15163 * 75) which is Rs. 1137225.

Plus, we will margin for shorting nifty call which is approx 26200 as of now.

Total money required to pocket premium = 1137225 + 26200 = 1399225 ~ 14 Lakh.

You will make 19200 on 14 Lakh which is 1.3 percent.

You are making 1.3 percent in 2.5 months. In an year, you will make approx 6.24 percent. 

Note - We can try this checking with far OTM calls but we need to contain the risk too that's why I went with Deep ITM call.

I think its better to buy plain niftybees which gave 12 percent CAGR in last 10 years or 16% CAGR since inception. 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/mutual-funds/nav/nippon-india-etf-nifty-bees/MBM001

Read More